Trump's blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged

The conflict is now a test of wills - Iran’s capacity to absorb strikes versus Trump’s tolerance for the war's costs. Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged JD Vance says US and Iran failed to reach deal Copyright current_year BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking. Copyright current_year BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking. A woman waves Iran's national flag in front of a giant billboard reading 'The Strait of Hormuz remains closed' at the Revolution Square in Tehran on 12 April A woman waves Iran's national flag in front of a giant billboard Trump's blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged After a diplomatic team led by Vice-President JD Vance tried, and failed, to reach a negotiated agreement to end the US war with Iran on Saturday, President Donald Trump had to decide his next move. That came on Sunday morning, in a series of Truth Social posts. The US will impose a naval blockade of Iran, he wrote. "No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas," he wrote. He also said that the US would continue clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz in order to ensure a safe passage for allied shipping. The US military, he added, was "locked and loaded" and prepared to resume attacks against Iran at an "appropriate moment". He went on to say that while progress had been made in the 20-hour negotiations in Islamabad, Iran would not meet the US demand that it abandon its nuclear ambitions. That view was contradicted somewhat by a US official familiar with Vance's negotiations, who spelled out a much longer list of disagreements – including on Iran's control of Hormuz and its support for regional proxies, like Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. While Trump's latest posts didn't have the apocalyptic bluster of last week's threat to end Iranian civilisation, they pose a number of new challenges – and risks – for the American side. Laborers remove billboards after the peace talks between US and Iran ends in Islamabad. Will mine-clearing activities place American naval vessels at greater risk of Iranian attacks? How would the US determine who paid Iran a toll? Will the US use force on foreign-flagged ships that ignore the blockade? How will nations that depend on Iranian oil, like China, respond? Will the move, intended to choke off Iran's primary income stream, drive up the price of oil to even higher levels? "I don't understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it," Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN on Sunday. On CBS' Face the Nation programme, Republican congressman Mike Turner of Ohio, who until last year chaired the House Intelligence Committee, said the blockade is a means to force a resolution to the situation in Hormuz. "The president, by saying we're not just going to let them decide who gets through, is certainly calling all of our allies and everyone to the table," he said. "This needs to be addressed." Last week, before Iran and the US agreed to a two-week ceasefire and face-to-face negotiations, Trump had found himself in a difficult situation. He could continue to ratchet up the US attacks on Iran, possibly doing long-term damage to the nation's civilian infrastructure, adding to a humanitarian crisis and further destablising the global economy. Or, he could back away from a war that has always been unpopular among the American public and is beginning to frustrate even some of Trump's supporters, who believed his promises to avoid extended foreign conflicts and Middle East entanglements. A new CBS poll suggests that most Americans (59%) feel the war is going somewhat or very badly for the US. Many believe the key US objectives - such as keeping open the Strait of Hormuz, securing greater freedom for the Iranian people, and permanently ending Iran's nuclear programme - remain unmet. Overwhelming bipartisan majorities feel it's important for the US to achieve these goals. Nearly a week has passed and, despite American claims of victory, the predicaments facing the president have not changed. Talking to Fox News on Sunday morning, Trump said that Iran would ultimately give the US "everything" it wants. He added that while oil prices might be the same or higher in the months ahead, he believed the US economy would hold up. And with November's midterm elections looming, the president's Republican Party could pay dearly at the polls if he is wrong. On Saturday night, as his vice-president was negotiating with the Iranians in Pakistan, Trump travelled to Miami, where he watched prize fighters batter each other in UFC cage matches. It was, according to members of the press pool in attendance, a bizarre spectacle. The president of the United States observed violent contests in a blood-spattered ring, chatted with celebrities and, at times, engaged in intense discussions with his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and other advisers, in full view of the thousands of attendees. Ultimate fighting cage matches, despite their ferocity, have set rules and time limits, and end with a clear winner and a loser. It's the kind of clarity that the Iran war may never provide, as it stretches into its second month and the current two-week ceasefire appears on the verge of collapse. The conflict has become a test of wills – of Iran's ability to endure continued US and Israel attacks versus Trump's tolerance for the economic and political pain the war has produced. In the end, all the participants in this fight might be diminished. JD Vance speaks on the phone with Donald Trump After Iran talks falter, the big question is what happens next? A promo image showing a satellite imposed over images taken by Planet Labs of an attack on an Iranian naval port. In the attack image, smoke can be seen rising from the base. Concerns after satellite provider restricts Iran images following US pressure A thin, grey banner promoting the US Politics Unspun newsletter. On the right, there is an image of North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, wearing a blue suit and shirt and grey tie. Behind him is a visualisation of the Capitol Building on vertical red, grey and blue stripes. The banner reads: "The newsletter that cuts through the noise.” Follow the twists and turns of Trump's second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher's weekly US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here. Follow the twists and turns of Trump's second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher's weekly Donald Trump says that the US is going to start blockading the Strait of Hormuz. What does this mean in practice? Twenty-one hours was not enough to end 47 years of hostility between Iran and the US, writes the BBC's Lyse Doucet. The US vice-president made the announcement after 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan. Taoiseach (Irish PM) Micheál Martin said groups "with a self-declared" mandate have imposed blockades. The star spent much of the gig singing along to YouTube videos of early hits like Baby and Never say Never. Many who support the president have expressed frustration with how Trump's former attorney general Pam Bondi handled the Epstein files. "Slopaganda" is too weak a term to capture how powerful this "highly sophisticated" content is, one expert says. The Iran war could not have come at a worse time for Sri Lanka, reeling from devastating floods and an economic crisis.