West Bengal polls: Axis My India won’t issue projections, says Pradeep Gupta

Axis My India has decided not to release its exit poll projections for the West Bengal Assembly elections after facing unusually low response rates from voters, according to its founder Pradeep Gupta. Gupta explained that the organization’s methodology relies on face-to-face interactions with voters, but during the first phase of polling, nearly 60–70% of respondents declined to share their voting choices. Speaking to NDTV, he said many voters were unwilling to even respond with a simple yes or no, making it difficult to gather reliable data. Due to this lack of participation, the sample collected was not representative enough to support credible projections. Gupta emphasized that publishing results based on only 20–30% of the intended sample would be misleading, prompting the decision to withhold the exit poll entirely. The agency had hoped that voters might become more open after polling concluded, but by Thursday afternoon it confirmed that no projections would be released. Meanwhile, other pollsters have issued conflicting predictions, reflecting a highly competitive political landscape in West Bengal. Some surveys suggest a potential victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while others indicate that the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, could retain power. The elections were conducted in two phases on April 23 and 29 across all 294 constituencies. To form a government, a party or alliance must secure at least 148 seats. The results are scheduled to be announced on May 4. Exit poll estimates vary widely. Some pollsters, like Matrize and P-Marq, project a narrow edge or clear lead for the BJP, while others foresee a close contest. In contrast, People’s Pulse predicts that the TMC may retain power, albeit with a reduced majority. Overall, the absence of projections from Axis My India—traditionally considered a key pollster—adds further uncertainty to an already unpredictable electoral outcome.